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Navigating the Markets: February 19th, 2024

The Banker's Crystal Ball
The Banker's Crystal Ball

High-Quality Fixed Income – Overweight duration

Last week, there was another major shift in rate expectations. The market now expects the Fed Rate cuts to happen later in the calendar. Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be four rate cuts starting in May. The Federal Reserve has a history of waiting too long before cutting rates, and then cutting too much. There is no reason to believe that this time will be any different, except for what they claim.

September rate outlook as of Feb 12th, 2024
September rate outlook as of Feb 26th, 2024

High Yield Fixed Income – Neutral Corporate, Overweight Municipal

US Equities – Underweight, tilt toward small-cap value

International Developed Equities – Overweight, tilt toward Japan

Emerging Markets – Neutral, underweight China, overweight Korea, Mexico, India


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