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Navigating Global Investment Opportunities: February 12th, 2024


Corner of Wall Street and Main Street

High-Quality Fixed Income – Overweight duration

Rate expectations have made a major shift this past week as one can see by comparing the CME FedWatch tool chart from last week with this week (below). This indicates that short-term rates are likely to come down later than expected and less than expected between now and September 18th. Our perspective is that the Fed could be influenced by the "long and variable lags" problem, which is a known issue related to the data they depend on, despite their "data dependence" policy.


September rate outlook as of Feb 12th, 2024
September rate outlook as of Feb 12th, 2024

September rate outlook as of Feb 5th, 2024
September rate outlook as of Feb 5th, 2024

High Yield Fixed Income – Overweight credit

US Equities – Underweight, tilt toward small-cap value

International Developed Equities – Overweight, tilt toward Japan

Emerging Markets – Neutral, underweight China, overweight Korea, Mexico, India


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